When Geopolitics Takes Center Stage: José Manuel Barroso’s Perspective
In a revealing conversation with Ben Coumans of Ageas, José Manuel Barroso, the former President of the European Commission, delved deep into the current geopolitical landscape.
Barroso's extensive experience in global politics adds significant weight to his observations on the critical issues shaping our world today.
The erosion of multilateralism
Barroso underscored the challenges facing multilateral institutions, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. As chairman of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI), he witnessed firsthand the difficulties of coordinating global responses to crises that transcend national borders.
The pandemic, he argued, was a stress test for international cooperation—one that exposed both the necessity and the limits of collective action.
European resilience and the need for growth
The European Union, often underestimated in moments of crisis, has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to adapt. The financial crisis, the pandemic, and, more recently, the war in Ukraine have prompted significant policy shifts—from joint debt issuance to collective vaccine procurement.
Yet, Barroso cautioned, economic and technological competitiveness remains a challenge. While the EU has proven adept at crisis management, it lags behind the United States and China in fostering high-growth industries. Without a stronger innovation drive, Europe risks becoming a regulatory power rather than a technological one.
Technology as a geopolitical force
Advances in artificial intelligence and biotechnology are reshaping global power dynamics, and Barroso highlighted the dual-use nature of these technologies—capable of driving economic progress while also serving military objectives. Such developments complicate international relations, as governments seek to balance innovation with national security concerns. Managing these competing interests, he argued, will define global governance in the coming decades.
US-China rivalry and Europe’s position
The strategic rivalry between the United States and China remains the defining geopolitical fault line. Washington’s efforts to contain Beijing’s rise—through trade restrictions, investment barriers, and military alliances—have broad implications for global markets.
Barroso noted that while Europe aligns with the US on many security issues, it must also navigate its own path, maintaining economic ties with China while upholding its commitment to open markets.
The EU’s geopolitical maturity
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point in Europe’s geopolitical outlook. Previously reluctant to assume a hard-power role, the EU has since strengthened its defence capabilities and embraced a more assertive foreign policy.
Barroso pointed to the issuance of joint debt for economic recovery and closer defence coordination within NATO as signs of a more strategically minded Europe—though whether this newfound cohesion endures remains an open question.
The rise of a multipolar world
Beyond the US-China rivalry, Barroso highlighted the role of emerging powers such as India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. These nations are no longer passive players in global affairs but rather strategic actors balancing their own interests among major powers. The result, he argued, is a world in which geopolitical alignments are increasingly fluid, complicating traditional alliances.
Africa’s economic potential
While geopolitical attention remains focused on the great-power competition, Barroso pointed to Africa as a region of untapped economic opportunity. With a young population and abundant resources, the continent has the potential to become a key driver of global growth. However, he stressed, European engagement with Africa must go beyond rhetoric, combining investment with policies that foster long-term stability and development.
Climate politics and global cooperation
On climate change, Barroso acknowledged Europe’s leadership in setting ambitious targets but warned that without the participation of major emitters such as the US and China, progress will remain limited. He also cautioned that climate policies must be politically and socially sustainable; without broad public support, even the most well-intentioned measures risk backlash.
A world in transition
Barroso’s reflections paint a picture of a world in flux. From the decline of multilateralism to the rise of new geopolitical actors, the global order is undergoing profound change. For policymakers and business leaders alike, the challenge lies in balancing national interests with the need for cooperation—a task made all the more difficult by growing economic and technological divides.
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